Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Facebook, the Dow Jones and Presidential Campaign Models

There’s MORE Great News for America coming - according to Dr. Gerard Lameiro. Many will recall that in 2016 Dr. Lameiro accurately predicted a Trump victory while most pollsters and pundits gave Trump almost zero chance of winning the presidential election. In his Electoral College forecast, Dr. Lameiro correctly predicted every state that candidate Trump actually carried in the 2016 election. On November 8th, we all learned that Dr. Lameiro’s Electoral College forecast was right on the money.

Facebook made big headlines this week due to its users’ personal data being utilized in presidential campaign models. Why did Facebook, predictive analytics, and presidential campaign models sink the Dow Jones Industrials on Monday?

This entire story about Facebook and the presidential elections of 2016 and 2012 all center around a little-known topic, namely predictive analytics. In my brand new book, More Great News for America, I not only make eight bold and surprising predictions about politics in America, but I also explain in common sense and easy-to-understand, language (without math and statistics) what predictive analytics are and how they are related to presidential election models and polling.

While forecast models take current or past data on many voters and project it forward into the future, predictive analytics tries to better understand what current factors are influencing individual voters to yield their likely future behavior. Predictive Analytics attempts to understand individual voters well enough to recognize what influences their voting decisions. A presidential campaign can then customize their outreach to individual voters.

Facebook lost nearly 7% of its stock market price on Monday because investors were worried that the Facebook business model might be harmed as a result of using their data about individuals to help various presidential campaigns in the future. In addition, this controversy might erode the overall ability of Facebook to monetize its data and business model for other campaigns and commercial purposes. This news also hurt the Dow Jones because it had a negative impact on tech stocks in general.

What will the impact be on the Special Counsel’s investigation? [more...]

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